When the Ocean sends a warning
By Aimeé Leslie, Conservation Director at WWF Peru.
El Niño does not arrive without warning. Before a ravine overflows, a community becomes isolated, or a fishing trip returns with empty nets, the ocean sends signals. Today, those signals are clear: the tropical Pacific is warming, and Peru has a narrow window in which to prepare.
On July 17, Peru’s Multisectoral Commission for the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) maintained its alert for Coastal El Niño. Its most likely scenario is that the event will continue through April 2027 with strong intensity, although it does not rule out the possibility of reaching extraordinary intensity toward the end of this year. At the same time, El Niño in the central Pacific could become very strong in November and December. NOAA estimates an 81% probability that it will reach that category between October and December.
This does not mean that every forecast will come true, nor that we can determine in advance where and when each disaster will occur. El Niño alters probabilities, but it does not write the weather in advance. Its impacts also depend on Atlantic Ocean temperatures, geography, the condition of ecosystems and, above all, how exposed and prepared we are. But uncertainty is not a reason to wait. It is precisely why we must prepare for different scenarios.
Along the coast, warming is already transforming the sea. ENFEN warns that anchoveta may remain closer to the shoreline and at greater depths than usual, using more of its energy reserves, while species typical of equatorial and oceanic waters move in. This is not simply a change in the distribution of fish. It is a disruption of the marine food chain and a threat to fisheries, the livelihoods of thousands of families, and food security. It also underscores the need to strengthen monitoring and adapt fisheries management decisions without placing the entire burden on artisanal fishers.
On land, ENFEN forecasts above-average rainfall along Peru’s northern and central coasts during the 2026–2027 summer. The risk does not come solely from how much rain falls. It increases when rainfall encounters occupied riverbanks, degraded wetlands, blocked drainage systems, vulnerable homes, and infrastructure projects that are announced as preventive measures but are implemented too late or not properly maintained. Heavy rainfall may be a natural phenomenon; its repeated transformation into disaster also reflects the cumulative consequences of human decisions.
The Amazon faces another dimension of the risk. El Niño tends to contribute to reduced rainfall in parts of the basin, but it does not act alone or uniformly. When combined with high temperatures and an unusually warm tropical Atlantic, droughts can intensify, river levels can fall, and conditions conducive to wildfires can increase. The impacts cascade: reduced navigability, isolated riverside communities, difficulties accessing water, food, healthcare and education, losses in agriculture and fisheries, and increased pressure on ecosystems already weakened by deforestation.
Recent experience urges us to avoid simplistic explanations. An attribution study on the 2023 Amazon drought concluded that El Niño reduced rainfall, but that global warming was the main driver of its severity, by increasing temperatures and moisture loss. Deforestation and fires further reduce the ability of forests and soils to retain water. El Niño is a powerful amplifier; climate change and environmental degradation have turned up the volume.
That is why the response cannot be limited to purchasing machinery once the rains have already begun, or mobilizing brigades only after the forest is burning. Preparing means clearing and restoring waterways based on sound technical criteria; protecting wetlands and riparian forests that help buffer floods; securing access to water, healthcare and transportation for Amazonian communities; anticipating navigation restrictions; strengthening wildfire prevention and early detection; and producing near-real-time fisheries information. It also means listening to fishers, Indigenous communities and riverside populations—not only as potential victims, but as people who understand their territories and as partners in the response.
El Niño cannot be prevented. Its most severe impacts can be reduced. Peru already knows the cost of rebuilding after every emergency. The question is whether, this time, it will invest with the same urgency before disaster strikes. The ocean has already sent its warning. Now it is up to us to show that the State and society have learned to listen.
© Philipp Kanstinger / WWF
